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The second “known” are the earnings SpaceX must produce to reward shareholders going forward. Keep in mind, it’s beginning at a standing start, given its apparent lack of current earnings. Where does SpaceX need to be in five years? This is the riskiest of bets. Looking at what investors demand from similarly risky enterprises, let’s estimate shareholders will want total returns of at least 10% a year to hold the stock. Hence, by 2031, its market cap must grow to at least $2.4 trillion to ring the bell. That’s bigger than all but four of the world’s biggest companies today—Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple—and far larger than Meta Platforms and Saudi Aramco, and $1.2 trillion bigger than Musk’s flagship, Tesla.